In Pakistan, a nation grappling with the complex challenges of tobacco control, a recent study has uncovered a troubling trend: despite concerted efforts by the government to curb cigarette consumption through price hikes, there has been a significant surge in the consumption of illicit cigarettes. This phenomenon not only undermines public health initiatives but also poses a serious threat to revenue collection and the overall well-being of the population.

The study, titled “The Impact of Cigarette Price Increase on Smoking Behavior & Patterns,” conducted by Umeed-e-Sehar, sheds light on the nuanced dynamics of tobacco consumption in Pakistan. Drawing on a sample of 1,698 smokers out of a total sample size of 2,000 individuals, along with surveys of 60 retailer shops in various cities including Mardan, Hyderabad, Multan, Faisalabad, Sahiwal, and Gujranwala, the study combines quantitative analysis with qualitative insights to provide a comprehensive understanding of the issue at hand.

One of the most alarming findings of the study is the overwhelming shift towards cheaper, tax-evaded cigarette brands among consumers. Despite the government’s efforts to deter smoking through price increases, a staggering 89% of respondents admitted that their consumption had not decreased, with 80% opting for cheaper brands instead. This trend is further underscored by the revelation that 71% of individuals surveyed had recently changed their cigarette brand, with a significant majority (67%) opting for illicit, tax-evaded brands due to their affordability.

The implications of this shift in consumer behavior are profound, with far-reaching consequences for public health and government revenue. The 154% increase in federal excise duty on cigarettes, intended to deter consumption by making them less affordable, has had the unintended consequence of driving consumers towards cheaper alternatives. This not only undermines the government’s revenue collection efforts but also exacerbates the prevalence of illicit trade in cigarettes, perpetuating a cycle of non-compliance and loss.

The study also highlights the role of retailers in perpetuating the illicit cigarette trade, with 87% confirming increased demand for cheaper, non-tax-paid cigarettes following the price increase. Alarmingly, 83.5% of retailers reported the absence of tax stamps on cigarette packs, indicating widespread tax evasion and regulatory non-compliance within the retail sector. This lack of enforcement further exacerbates the problem, enabling the proliferation of illicit cigarettes and undermining the efficacy of tobacco control measures.

Furthermore, the price increase has led to significant shifts in the price distribution of cigarette brands, with the majority of respondents (62.4%) reporting the use of brands priced between 80 and 120 rupees. This suggests that the price hike has disproportionately impacted lower-income consumers, pushing them towards cheaper, illicit alternatives that pose greater health risks and contribute to the erosion of government revenue.

Muzammil Sheikh, Chief Executive Officer of Umeed-e-Sehar, emphasizes the urgency of addressing this issue, noting that while well-intentioned, the price hike has inadvertently fueled the growth of the illicit cigarette trade, undermining both public health goals and government revenue. He stresses the need for policymakers to take decisive action to tackle illicit trade and strengthen enforcement mechanisms to curb the proliferation of illicit cigarettes.

Efforts to reduce smoking in Pakistan must be coupled with comprehensive strategies to combat illicit trade, Sheikh asserts. Strengthening enforcement mechanisms, enhancing regulatory oversight, and raising awareness about the dangers of illicit cigarettes are essential steps towards creating a healthier, tobacco-free society. Failure to act, he warns, will only perpetuate this vicious cycle, jeopardizing the well-being of the nation and undermining the progress made in tobacco control efforts.

In conclusion, the study’s findings serve as a wake-up call for policymakers and stakeholders in Pakistan. The surge in illicit cigarette consumption despite price hikes underscores the need for targeted interventions to address the root causes of this problem. By strengthening enforcement, enhancing regulatory oversight, and raising awareness, Pakistan can mitigate the prevalence of illicit cigarettes, protect public health, and safeguard government revenue for the benefit of its citizens.